I generally update the taxable trading account holdings on a regular basis to keep readers informed on recent moves, market outlook and performance. For years, I've also held a less active, more dividend-focused self-directed Roth IRA. Essentially, rather than investing in mutual funds for this portion of my Roth IRA holdings, I buy my own shares since I can't find the mix I'm looking for in any mutual fund. Of course, I have another portion of my IRA holdings in a nice low-fee Vanguard S&P500 index fund. However, given the availability of double-digit dividend yield stocks and the tax protection of dividends offered through a self directed Roth IRA, I find it advantageous to hold these shares here.
Since I haven't posted these results in a while, I'm sharing the 1 month return as of tonight 4/28/08. The results are actually much better than my active account (perhaps that's telling me something), more than doubling the return of the major indices PLUS an average yield of over 13% per year which I didn't factor in to my returns (add about 1% per month to the return). The S&P500 returned 6.2% and the portfolio returned 12.6% plus dividends. An additional factor to consider is that several of these holdings have appreciated 50% plus and at the time of purchase, the yield was much higher, but to be conservative, I'm reporting the current yield at the present discounted rate. Standouts were: AFN, my foray back into the financials. I took a bold move here several weeks back and posted the background and rationale on the "ridiculous yielder" AFN HERE. Shippers FRO and SFL have continued to do quite well in the face of the continued rising commodities boom. Their pricing power seems unstoppable at this point. PCU, the Peruvian copper miner pretty much tracks with the price of copper, so no complaints over the 12% yield there. And finally, WBD has performed spectacularly of late. I didn't buy this one for the yield, but wanted to purchase and was tapped out in my taxable account, so I got into this one at 100 and have a 27% gain to date; 23% for the month.www.everydayfinance.blogspot.com
With Black Friday on the horizon, I thought I'd pose the question -
What's your Money Mindset?
Do you derive please from saving money on something? I do. Many people are excited by spending money; I enjoy saving it. I also enjoy being generous and helping others as well. My overriding theme in life is reasonable consumption mixed with reasonable frugality in an attempt to balance the security of a fully funded future with the enjoyment of life experiences with friends and family while I'm young enough to enjoy and remember them.
This is the dichotomy that may seem confusing to people at either end of the spectrum - i.e. people that are so intent on saving money in such miserly fashion that they lose all site of humanity and focus solely on enriching themselves at the expense of others…or even themselves (i.e. terrible tippers, terrible gift-givers, petty thieves, the "extreme-cheap" - those that are so cheap that it annoys and impacts relationships of those around them, etc.).
Conversely, at the other end of the spectrum are the euphoric spenders who's only pleasure is derived from the acquisition of material possessions. They're down most of the time and they're over the top lit up when shopping. Shopping is their vice. They'll be forever "chasing the dragon" for that first hit, which they'll never achieve, yet they will eternally seek to replicate the euphoria they find to be so elusive. So, they don't really derive any value from saving money because that's not an objective in the near term.
Saving money is a long term benefit so it can be used for a rainy day, early retirement, toward your child's college fund, etc., whereas the instant gratification of purchasing a 77th pair of designer shoes or the latest early-adopter gadget that will be obsolete in 6 months is where they're focused.
So, where do you fall? What is your assessment of your money mindset? What strategy do you have in life for money management and behavior? What kind of money habits do you endorse?
Each week, I like to publish the past week's hottest ETFs to share some new trends and niche ETFs (and ETNs) out there (check out this full ETF List of ~800 - every exchange traded fund I could find) and give investors some new investing/diversification ideas. Last week, it was metals, metals, metals. I made sure to include both conventional and leveraged ETFs in this week's hot list:
Hot List Leveraged ETFs
AGQ - Ultra Silver ProShares - Up 13% - This is a 2X daily leveraged ETF tracking the return of silver. This one's been a regular on the hot list several times recently, as silver is more volatile than gold, hence, the runups have been even more pronounced. You'll want to check out how silver and other precious metal ETFs are doing in comparison to gold - much better! It's primarily one of many weak dollar ETF plays, but gold tends to get all the press. If you're only investing in the play, silver and other ETFs may actually do much better for you. AGQ is up 119% YTD.
BDD - PowerShares DB Base Metals Dble Long ETN - Up 8% - Aligned with the overall trend in metals strength last week this broader double long ETN for base metals turned in a strong week flat equities market. BDD is up 177% vs. a 21% return for the S&P500 YTD incidentally. As you can see, base metals have been outperforming precious metals.
UGL - Proshares Ultra Gold - Up 6% - Essentially the same play as AGQ, but it's a gold ETF. While the prospects of a 2x return sound appealing, make sure you're familiar with the ins and outs of leveraged ETFs and the fact that over long periods of time, the shares of these ETFs tend to perform at less than 2x as value is eroded due to daily balancing in volatile markets. In the case of silver and gold ETFs, the leveraged type have been able to maintain their gains over time due to a steady upward trend which overcomes daily degradation in value. However, if the trend breaks or even just goes flat, you'll see the decay I cited over time.
Hot List - Sector ETFs (no leverage)
PGM- iPath DJ AIG Platinum TR Sub-IdxETN - Up 8% -This Platinum ETN continues to run. For a non-leveraged play on precious metal strength/weak dollar trending, PGM is up 52% YTD vs. 31% for GLD, the predominant gold ETF.
PPH- Pharm Holders ETF - Up 4% - For a break from the metals sector, I noted that the large cap pharma index was up on the week. While it may seem counter-intuitive that as we're on the eve of the passage of healthcare reform legislation which is anything but beneficial to healthcare companies at large, it appears as though certain segments of the healthcare economy will be impacted in different ways. It is generally believed that while pharmas may see some price reductions, they'll likely see increased volumes given the universal coverage, so it may be roughly a wash at the end of the day, which is a sigh of relief for an industry wrought with lawsuits, threats of imports from overseas and generic competition. With one major wildcard potentially mitigated, analysts are starting to like the sector a bit more than when the initial healthcare debate began.
UGA- United States Gasoline - Up 3% - Gasoline prices were on the rise last week. Since this product uses futures contracts and attempts to track the prices, it may not exactly match the changes in price as reported by AAA, but it is surely the best proxy for US prices at the pump. Personally, I've used this ETF before to hedge energy prices for our family's finances. I had previously sold puts on the Oct 28 strike contract (which just expired last month as desired) and I rolled a new one this month.
With metals stealing the stage of late due to the continued weak dollar trend, another interesting investment you'll want to check out is the flex CD that derives its return from currency strength of BRIC economies vs. the US dollar (which has been in the cellar in recent months). Disclosure: As noted, the only active holding is a naked UGA call to hedge energy prices.
In 2008, I wrote this article chastising Vonage for a horrific experience I had in attempting to cancel my account. Well, low and behold, Vonage disclosed this week that it would pay $3 Million to settle an investigation of its business practices in 32 states. As part of the settlement, Vonage agreed to provide refunds to affected customers and to change its business practices.
What NOT to do as a business
It's really unfortunate that it takes legal action in order to get a company to do the right thing - or to just stop being evil, really. Perhaps that's why we're so litigious here in the US, it's the only way to get anything done sometimes.
Look, I'm not the first person to experience this and I clearly wasn't the last given the investigation and size of the award. With griping bloggers flooding the interwebs with complaints of corporate mistreatment, you can't tell me Vonage 1) wasn't fully aware of the amount of ire their customer service practices were generating and 2) knew exactly what they were doing. Where's the accountability? Apparently, they didn't admit to wrongdoing - they're just being fined for no good reason. I just hope that when Vonage folds (come on, how long are they going to try and keep this going), the miscreants that oversaw these operations are asked to explain their rationale for this systemic mistreatment of customers during their prospective employer interviews.
While $3 Million isn't really much money, especially for the thousands upon thousand of customers that have had to endure this inane mess of a system, neither is the dollar stock status that Vonage now enjoys.
Each week, I like to publish the past week's hottest ETFs to share some new trends and niche ETFs out there (check out this full ETF List of 787 and counting - every exchange traded fund I could find) and give investors some new investing/diversification ideas. Last week, Real Estate, Tech and Emerging Markets led the way in an overall up week for equities. I made sure to include both conventional and leveraged ETFs in this week's hot list:
Hot List Leveraged ETFs
DRN - Direxion Daily Real Estate 3x - Up 19% - This 3X Return Real Estate Fund was the hottest ETF from last week, up an astounding 19% after a 13% return the prior week. DRN is 107% since launching in July. While this sounds appealing, note that ETFs tend to launch when their underlying sectors are hot. Real estate is just emerging from a near-collapse in the US and is rallying now. The way these leveraged ETFs work, on the upside, due to daily balancing, they can actually exceed a 3X total return over a brief period of time, if the run is virtually uninterrupted (which this one isn't - DRN is actually down 20% from its peak in September). However, over a long period of time, as a trend reverses (as they ultimately all do), the 3X daily return funds do not return anything near 3 times the underlying index due to daily rebalancing. In fact, over long periods of time, they often lose as much or MORE value than the underlying sector, even during a net positive upswing. I always caution investors to understand the risks and dynamics of these poorly understood ETFs before trading (I don't use the word "investing" with 3X ETFs - see why?).
TYH - Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3X Shares - Up 10%- This 3X Tech ETF has been a stalwart member of the hottest ETFs updates, as Tech has outperformed most other sectors in US equities. With productivity through the roof and companies coming out of this recession leaner than ever while remaining employees doing everything they can to avoid a layoff, what corporations are spending money on however, is technology to further boost productivity and allow them to remain lean on the payroll expense given the uncertainty of the return of the consumer. Year to date, the Nasdaq is up 37% vs. an 21% gain for the S&P500 and this ETF is now up 197% on the year and 364% since the March lows. The top 3 underlying holdings are Apple, Cisco and Google.
EDC- Direxion 3X Emerging Markets - Up 10% - With equities rallying globally and the higher Beta that the emerging market bourses carry (full emerging markets ETF list here), not only did they take it on the chin last year on the way down, but during the recovery, they are rocketing back up at a much faster pace than US equities. EDC is up almost 10X the S&P500 during the 2009 YTD period at 193% vs. 21% for the S&P500.
FAZ - Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares - Up 7% - You can always count on having either FAS (triple long) or FAZ (triple short) Financials on the list given the volatility in the Financial sector and the constant news cycle regarding either more government oversight, more leadership turnover, TARP paybacks and more. In the near term, it's conceivable that Financials just continue to run. After all, it's looking as though they'll be borrowing at zero and lending for much more for at least another year and the comps from the year prior will continue to look stellar. Overlay these basics with a continued weak dollar trend, which bodes well for all companies deriving a decent portion of income from overseas which many in the index do and it's a perfect storm - of upward share movement; prone to major corrections at any time though. Caveat Emptor.
Hot List - Sector ETFs (no leverage)
ICF - iShares Cohen & Steers Realty - Up 7% -Seeing as how DRN was on the top of the list for leveraged returns, it comes as no surprise that the top rated non-leveraged ETF was also a real estate fund. Coming off the March lows, ICF is up 102% vs. the also astounding 60% return for the S&P500. If you're looking to play the real estate rebound in a non-leveraged fashion, ICF is a decent proxy. VNQ (Vanguard) also performed well on the week at up 6% and has a lower expense ratio.
RSX - Market Vectors Russia ETF - Up 6% - Russia been on a tear, up 160% since the March lows. Viewed as on the verge of default in early 2009, with oil stabilizing over $70 per barrel along with the global economy recovering, markets have viewed Russia's near-collapse in equities as overdone and investors have been buying back in in force. The ruble has recovered against the US dollar indicating the worst may be over from a devaluation standpoint.
SEA - Claymore/Delta Global Shipping - Up 6% - With a steady runup last week totaling 6%, this shipping ETF hasn't been keeping up with the S&P500 over the prior 3 and 6 month periods. However, shippers are notorious for throwing off high yields given the nature of their business. As such, the yield on SEA currently stands at 4%. If you're in it for yield and are thinking perhaps the markets move sideways for a bit, consider high yield municipal bond ETFs which are also tax-exempt from dividends, or high yield corporate bonds.
Van Eck has launched a new ETF focused solely on smaller sized gold miners and explorers than the predominant gold miners ETFGDX. This new Juniors ETF will trade under the ticker GDXJ. According to Investors Business Daily, here are some key stats:
63%, of the components are based in Canada, followed by the U.S. with 22%, Australia 11%, South Africa 2%, China 1% and the U.K. 1%
expense ratio of 0.60%
GDXJ's underlying index spiked 92.4% this year through Oct. 30.
Compare that performance with the gold bullion ETFGLD at 19% and GDX at 24% over that same period. This is because of the speculative nature of some of these juniors that explore for years with no finds and then spike massively upon a find announcement. As an example, the fund's largest holding CDE is up 128% during the Oct 30 YTD period. I've made no secret of my thoughts on gold being more of a weak dollar trade than anything else and that silver-platinum ETFs are better performers than gold if it continues to run and currency ETFs are the base case for continued US dollar depreciation, but I'm going to have to eat my hat if this trend continues.
While I won't be partaking, the prospects for the fund appear to be massive risk and massive volatility which bodes well for a continued upswing in the underlying price of gold and complete ruin if gold returns below $1000.
Each week, I like to publish the past week's hottest ETFs to share some new trends and niche ETFs out there and give investors some new investing/diversification ideas. Last week, emerging markets and commodities continued to show strength while the S&P500 ended with week with a respectable gain of 3.2%. I've made sure to include both some leveraged ETFs with their outsized gains (but take note of leveraged ETF risk of value destruction over time due to daily rebalancing) as well as non-leveraged traditional sector ETFs.
Hot List Leveraged ETFs
EDC- Direxion 3X Emerging Markets - Up 17% - With equities rallying globally and the higher Beta that the emerging market bourses carry, not only did they take it on the chin last year on the way down, but during the recovery, they are rocketing back up at a much faster pace than US equities. EDC is up almost 10X the S&P500 during the 2009 YTD period at 167% vs. 18% for the S&P500.
AGQ - Ultra Silver ProShares - Up 12% - This is a 2X leveraged ETF tracking the return of silver. This one's been a regular on the hot list several times recently, as silver is more volatile than gold, hence, the runups have been even more spectacular. You'll want to check out how silver and other precious metal ETFs are doing in comparison to gold - much better! It's primarily one of many weak dollar ETF plays, but gold tends to get all the press. If you're only investing in the play, silver and other ETFs may actually do much better for you.
TYH - Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3X Shares - Up 10%- This 3X Tech ETF has been a stalwart member of the hottest ETFs updates, as Tech has outperformed most other sectors in US equities. With productivity through the roof and companies coming out of this recession leaner than ever while remaining employees doing everything they can to avoid a layoff, what corporations are spending money on however, is technology to further boost productivity and allow them to remain lean on the payroll expense given the uncertainty of the return of the consumer. Year to date, the Nasdaq is up 34% vs. an 18% gain for the S&P500 and this ETF is now up 170% on the year and 320% since the March lows. The top 3 underlying holdings are Apple, Cisco and Google.
TMV- Direxion Daily 30-Year Treasury Bear 3x Shares- Up 8% - This 3x leveraged ETF seeks to actually exploit improving market conditions that result from a flight FROM safety by driving up the yield (and price lower) on 30 year Treasuries. Recall that in 2008, we were seeing record lows for yields on Treasuries and in some cases, investors were accepting a negative yield on short dated securities just to have somewhere to stash their funds during the storm. Now, Treasury yields have risen dramatically since earlier in the year and it's possible that the easy money's been made already. However, if you foresee a continued exodus from Treasuries into more risky assets, this and the other Short Treasury ETF plays would be the best move. Hot List - Sector ETFs (no leverage)
GDX - Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF - Up 12% - This ETF was an interesting study in divergence from the underlying commodity. Over long periods of time, GDX roughly tracks the returns of gold, with the ETF GLD as a proxy. However, last week, GDX returned 12% vs. a return of 5% for GLD. In fact, YTD 2009, GDX has actually outperformed GLD by a margin of 41% vs. 24%. If you're a believer in the displacement of the US Dollar as the world's reserve currency, which would bring a rapid increase in the price of gold (which is why we may be seeing the continued rise of late in anticipation of this eventuality). KOL - Market Vectors Coal ETF - Up 8% - With a 8% move last week, this ETF continued its tear for the prior 6 months, up 50% vs. a 18% for the S&P500 and 26% for the USO oil ETF, another energy proxy. With a US recovery in hand and coal being the practical source of energy in the US for the foreseeable future, regardless of political promises of "green energy, green jobs" and other worthless promises unsupported by market forces, the underlying companies have been rallying.
EWZ - iShares MSCI Brazil Index- Up 8% - Brazil has staged a nice recovery out of the March lows and continued its ascent into November, up 8% last week. EWZ is up 113% on the year vs. 18% for the S&P500. Brazil is one of many hot emerging market ETFs listed here.
XBI - SPDR S&P Biotech - Up 7% - With large pharma continuing their buying/partnership spree and the typical winter biotech conferences coming up, interest is brewing again. Individual Biotechs are prone to single day pops of 30% and more like the binary event associated with HGSI's lupus drug results this week as I had called last Friday with an option spread position that gained close to 100% 1 trading day later. However, as a sector, XBI has been a bit anemic this year, underperforming the S&P500 over the prior 6 month and YTD periods.
What do you get when you mix India with Small Cap Stocks? Well, that would be the Market Vectors India Small-Cap ETF according to this week's BusinessWeek print copy. If a broader emerging markets ETF for small caps is any barometer, the SPDR S&P Emerging Markets Small Cap ETF (EWX) is up 80% YTD. Compare that to 59% for iSharesMSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM) a comparable proxy for emerging markets stocks (refer to this list of all Emerging Markets ETFs) and 18% for the S&P500 (SPY).
Of course, with massive returns like this comes greater volatility and risk of implosion. If you have a spot for speculative investments in your portfolio though, this one may be worth holding for the long term since both emerging markets and small caps in general tend to be more volatile and hence, provide supercharged returns in up markets over time.
At the moment, no word on when this new ETF will be available or what the ticker will be. The Van Eck Fund Filing page is devoid of any information. I'll be sure to update as soon as the information becomes available, so be sure to Subscribe to RSS or follow my Twitter.
Source: BusinessWeek Edition 16-Nov-2009
Disclosure: No position in EEM. Ratio Put Spread hedged position in SPY.
There's been a lot of press lately about the Carry Trade, and like all catchy trends in the investing world, by the time it's a routine fixture on CNBC and blogs, the smart money's been made and retail investors are left holding the bag when the bubble bursts (anyone recall housing 2007, oil 2008?). Conversely, the trend is your friend and given the continued decline of the US dollar of late, we may very well see this trend continue for months. In a flat or downward stock market following a 60% move from the bottom, the carry trade may be a nice place to earn a double digit gain in the meantime.
As outlined in this article on Currency ETFs, there are some currencies that are making great gains against the US Dollar and investors could have captured some nice low-correlation gains alongside stock gains in the past few months and this may continue.
What is the Carry Trade Exactly?
Essentially, because the US has a near 0% interest rate and other economies have higher interest rates or are even raising them due to the relative strength and confidence in their economies (like Australia), currency ETFs such as FXA (Aussie Dollar) are on fire. This year, you would have even done better in FXA than the S&P500, even given the recent rally.
Chart 1: YTD Return FXA +28% vs. S&P500 +15%
With all the talk of the US Dollar being displaces as the reserve currency of choice, we've seen gold rally to all-time highs, which is very much a function of the weakening dollar (see why silver-platinum ETFs are even better investments than gold in a weak dollar environment) as opposed to a supply shortage or industrial demand. Meanwhile silver and platinum benefit from actual real-world industrial utilization and are more leveraged to a weakening dollar even than gold. However, aside from a commodities trade or trying to pit Australia alone vs. the US, another ETF that goes long the highest yielding currencies and short the lowest yielding currencies is DBV - PowerShares DB G10 Currency Harvest. This one is considered a broader play on the carry trade rather than betting on the relative strength of individual currencies. Carry Trade Bubble Risk
To be clear, playing the carry trade this far into the dance is not without risk. Prominent B-School professor and oft-doomsayer Roubini has been warning of the imminent collapse of the mother of all carry trades. The video's a bit long, so I'll summarize. He warns that when the carry trade reverses (the bubble bursts) and investors have to cover their short dollar positions, panic will ensue and investors will rush for the exits. In doing so, the dollar will rally to the tune of 25% or more and overseas currencies will crash precipitously. Those that are long foreign currencies and short the US dollar will get crushed. Indirectly, all risky assets will suffer including stocks and bonds like we saw in 2008 into 2009.
This would be akin to what we saw during the global collapse and complete capitulation of the investment world at large in March 2009 where even the weak dollar-gold correlation broke down for the first time in years - and then promptly recovered as we're seeing now. Therefore, if you're a contrarian and want to wait it out for this bubble to burst, you'd want to stay out of commodities, stay out of the foreign currency ETFs and just go long the dollar or Treasuries.
Disclosure: No positions in currency ETFs. Engaged in hedged Treasuries ETF strategy that is net neutral.
Global equities took a breather for the month, but thanks to some nifty hedging and smart trades, the portfolio continued to run. For instance, just this Friday, I tweeted the following knowing there was a nice binary event in play for Monday:
Trade: Spread on HGSI Nov 20/25 on Monday big news. 100% gain or loss by Mon. Details on spreads in recent option post http://bit.ly/2fdOFc
-Well, on Monday shares opened up 35% and HGSI hit $28 today for a virtual 100% 2 day gain on the play. Not a bad trade.
I'm also working on a hedge strategy that's been performing great - and I'm ready to unveil it. I just need to get around to doing it justice with the right visuals, in depth description and requisite risk highlights. Look for it this month!
The blogs are both performing great! Total revenues for Darwin's Finance and Everyday Finance broke another all-time record. While things had been steady in September at Darwin's Finance, traffic skyrocketed to 40,000 views in October, better than a 50% monthly growth rate. If only I could repeat that month after month!
Don't get me wrong - I'm not in it JUST for the money, but being the economics-minded students of behavioral science you all are, you surely realize that it doesn't hurt when there's an economic incentive to further motivate you to continue doing something you already love. Note that if any of us were in it for the money, nobody would tough it out through the first 6 months of blogging since you literally make no money when you start - single penny. Not one click for weeks. It's a long haul, but I think it's good to highlight financial rewards rather than pretend I'm not making any money and claim "I just like to cover my hosting fees". Just sayin' - profit isn't a dirty word.
I've been making some great design changes to the new blog, loving WordPress and the Thesis theme which just released a new update with even more easy to customize features.
And I'm still employed! No joking around - more and more of our friends and acquaintances have found themselves unemployed in this economic downturn and I often reflect on how fortunate we are to be in a position where I'm gainfully employed and we have a decent emergency fund and savings established in the event of a layoff.
How'd I Increase Traffic 50% in 1 Month?
Primarily, with content people enjoy! And of course, some promotional help from readers like you, and friends in the blogosphere. Here are the most popular posts of the month by traffic, comments and my own biased opinion! Since they're split between both blogs and you may only follow one, make sure to check some of these out, you may enjoy!
There's a particularly annoying trend in the drug business whereby companies that aren't in the biological manufacturing business refer to themselves as Biotechs. To some, this may seem like splitting hairs. To me, it is disingenuous and may be fooling investors into buying into a business model that doesn't live up to its name.
My first glimpse of the practice was during my MBA program when I took a course entitled Biotech Commercialization and it was an elective geared toward the Biotech option in the MBA program. I thought I was taking a course dealing with relevant issues facing a biological manufacturing company and the commercialization process which is the series of 10 or more years from concept to manufacturing utilizing complex biological processes to regulation by CBER, the Biologics arm of the FDA, to the submission of a BLA as opposed to an NDA, to a business model commensurate with Biologics as opposed to a typical Pharma commercial model, clinical trial topics relevant to biologics, etc. The adjunct professor was hailed as an officer and executive of a major "Biotech" company. Well, about two courses in, I realized I was duped and I was being taught a class in pharmaceutical commercialization from a guy from a small drug company that decided to call themselves a "Biotech" instead. It turns out they were a one-hit wonder (well, the drug wasn't even approved yet and still isn't) with a single DRUG that all his lectures were based on. He was basically going through the tried and true pharma model and we didn't learn a thing about the Biotech industry - the REAL Biotech industry. The same was pretty much true of all the electives in the Biotech arm of the program. While I found this to be personally annoying, I see the same mislabeling occur in the mainstream press, from stock pundits on TV and people that just aren't aware of the difference.
First, let's talk about some of the differences between the terms "Biotech" and "Pharma":
Biotech is cool and Pharma's evil. Think of it as Google vs. Microsoft. This is what your politicians will have you believe and you can even find hippie college students that are destined to work in the cool biotech hubs in California and Boston while claiming they wouldn't be caught dead at a "Big Pharma". Even Cramer was always touting that under Obama, Biotechs would be winners and Pharmas would be losers.
Biotech relies on biological manufacturing processes to produce their products while Pharma utilizes chemical synthesis - in general. While there are sometimes some fermentation processes for a small molecule product and biological products surely require various chemical treatments and separations throughout the process, the overall processes are very much different. Pharmaceutical processes are generally referred to as "small-molecule" since the active is a chemical, whereas a Biologic is a large molecule since it's often a protein, a polysaccharide, an antibody, or some other biologically derived material.
Biotech is cutting edge and Pharma's old school. This would be an over-generalization, but in many cases, it has some truth to it. Many pharmaceutical processes produced today are employing similar processes that were utilized 30 years ago to produce drugs. Meanwhile, companies are still finding ways to entice biological matter to behave in ways we never imagined - to improve yields, characterization, consistency, potency, whatever it may be. Biological products are often injectibles or infusions, whereas drug products are often solid oral dose. The difference? Massive differences in risk to the patient in the manufacturing process - and hence, regulatory oversight. If you're injecting someone with a syringe and there's a single USP pathogen in there, it could mean death once it gets into their bloodstream. With a tablet going through the digestive track, the risk is much lower.
Costs: While big pharma is often vilified for their pricing and seniors want their drugs for free, the biotech model is often one of seemingly truly exorbitant pricing to the tune of $10,000 per month or more for treatments. In many cases, it may be a cancer drug that extends the patient's life by 6 months, but ends up costing insurers/families upwards of $100,000 for a regiment. If I'm the guy looking at a terminal illness and have the means, surely I'd want to enjoy an extra 6 months with my family. However, as more and more treatments are developed and as our population continues to age, is this sustainable?
Why is it Important to Distinguish Between True Biotechs and Pharmas
All other things being equal (commercially), it is much more difficult to manufacture a biologic than a pharmaceutical. Take a look at the trouble multiple capable and established players in the vaccine space are having manufacturing the H1N1 vaccine. People are clamoring for a vaccine by the millions while the companies are helpless to improve their yields. Sometimes, a particular strain just doesn't do what you want it to. Biological processes are particularly difficult to design, control and maintain consistently. Drug processes - not so bad.
This being the case, if you're working in Biotech Manufacturing, there's probably a lower likelihood that your job is going to be outsourced than if you're working in a pharmaceutical plant. While there are dozens of API (active pharmaceutical ingredient) plants in India and China manufacturing upstream components for drugs ultimately sold in the US and the rest of the world, there are virtually no biologics coming out of either country into the US. None, actually that I'm aware of, but there may be a handful that have been approved in the past couple years, as opposed to hundreds of API and drug formulation steps. Large US Pharmas are actually gobbling up Biotech assets by the mouthful while shedding pharmaceutical plants. Every single legacy pharma is doing it and it's unlikely this trend will reverse.
Different Business Models: While the patent law surrounding small molecules is pretty straightforward (at the end of the patent, many generics enter the space and pretty much wipe out sales of the innovator company by undercutting the price), for biologics, this is still evolving. To date, there's still much debate on biogenerics given the technical difficulty in both replicating the manufacturing process and then, proving the efficacy in patients. For this reason, especially if your product is in the peak/mature phase now, it's much better to be making a biologic than it is a small molecule.
Now, let's talk about why people confuse the two - or startups deliberately mislabel themselves as Biotechs when they're not.
Coolness Factor - While executives aren't in the business of being cool per se, they don't want their startup to be viewed as just another old-school drug startup. Biotech has a certain ring to it. It sounds innovative, exciting, about to explode into a world of opportunities. It helps with everything from recruiting to getting people to show you the money:
Venture Capital/Wall Street Treatment - Angel investors and retail investors are enamored with the biotech industry, whereas the pharma industry is viewed as a bit of a dinosaur following the era of the blockbuster. Especially in the early stages, wouldn't you be much more excited throwing your money at a "Biotech" startup than a pharma based on what you've heard?
Who Cares?
You Should if you're considering investing in a Biotech because you think it's a Biotech.
If you're looking to buy a company that's a likely buyout target due to its cutting edge manufacturing and research pipeline, Pharma's on the prowl for Biotech assets (physical) and not pharma assets. This includes plants, personnel and know-how. There's plenty of that to go around on the small molecule side, not so much in biologics.
If you're thinking your target company may have decades of exclusivity while Congress toils with laws governing biotech patent law and the FDA still tries to figure out how to regulate biogenerics, you'll want to make sure you're really buying a Biotech company and not a pharma company.
If get a job offer from a cutting edge Biotech company, you may find out when you get there that you're running a packaging line for tablets and your Biochemical Engineering degree isn't being put to good use. Well, I guess an informed candidate would ask some questions during the interview process, but sometimes you don't learn much about your company until you're already there.
Each week, I like to publish the past week's hottest ETFs to share some new trends and niche ETFs out there and give investors some new investing/diversification ideas. Last week, all global markets and emerging markets especially, took a beating. As such, the short index ETFs were on fire. While going long on a leveraged short ETF is obviously not a sustainable "investment" strategy, for traders anticipating a correction, they were rewarded handsomely. Aside from the 3X short daily balanced ETFs that performed well, I also included some other ETFs that don't employ 3x leverage that at least made money and also have some niche offerings.
Hot List Triple Short Daily Balanced ETFs
EDZ - Direxion Daily Emrg Mkts Bear 3X Shares - Up 23% - The long Emerging Markets ETF EDC had been completely on fire up until last week, gaining 194%. However, last week, EDC reversed and the triple short ETF EDZ rallied 23%. This is really just a play on a correction for a trade. Given the beating emerging markets took in the 2008 downturn and the rapid ascent during the recovery, they're much more volatile and hence, you wouldn't want to be holding EDZ during an upswing, no matter what kind of hedging you employ. However, if you feel you can time the correction better than the next guy, this is your ETF.
FAZ - Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares - Up 18% - FAZ is another common ETF on this list along with its counterpart for triple long Financials FAS. Likewise, a bad week for global markets didn't bode well for the long ETF, so FAS rocketed 18% on the month. While I often see "resistance" and other technical indicator terminology on the boards associated with FAS and FAZ, I don't think that holds much water for leveraged ETFs since they're really just a derivative of the real underlying index and actual valuation drifts (generally downward) over time due to the leveraged ETF risk whereby you can lose money even if you bet in the right direction and hold on too long.
ZSL - UltraShort Silver ProShares - Up 16% - With silver being even more volatile than gold, this 2X short silver ETF rallied in a declining industrial/precious metals environment. Not one to predict which way precious metals are going to go, if you are looking for a play on them one way or the other, silver moves much faster than gold, even though gold tends to get all the press.
ERY - Direxion Daily Energy Bear 3X Shares - Up 14% - With oil dropping 4% on the week, this triple short Energy sector (note: tracks companies, not the price of oil itself) gained 14%. While on a short term basis, ERY has performed well, the trend during the recovery has been up - big. ERY is down 66% YTD.
Hot List - Other ETFs
VXX - iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN - Up 14% - The VXX ETN is the best way to play the VIX which is a common measure of volatility or "fear" in the market. In retrospect, it was kind of a no-brainer to pick up some VXX recently since volatility had approached lows not seen in well over a year and would act as a natural hedge against a correction - plus, the downside risk was minimal. The VIX can't go to zero, but it could easily spike. Unfortunately, I didn't use my brain and act on my hunch and missed a nice easy lurch upward. I had employed other cheap option strategies to hedge (rather than flat out buying Puts which gets expensive) which are now coming into the money, but nothing like a non-leveraged 1 week gain of 14%.
DMM - MacroShares Major Metro Housing Down - Up 6% - DMM is the down leg for the Case-Shiller home price index and while it's not a perfect representation of real estate in the US (since real estate is local), it's the best measure out there. In order to juice the returns, DMM and the long leg UMM do employ leverage, but shares of both have been rather muted since launch in the summer. UMM is up 17% overall and DMM is down 15% overall.
FXY - CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust - Up 2% - The Japanese Yen continued to gain strength against the US Dollar as many currencies have been of late. As outlined in this more detailed description of how to use weak dollar ETFs rather than opening a Forex account to either speculate or hedge against a looming US Dollar crisis, FXY is up 10% over the prior 6 months and if the US is spooked by another round of home foreclosures or corporate debt defaults, you'll likely continue to see the US dollar weaken further against other established currencies, even possibly some of the emerging market currencies listed.
As a subscriber to Consumer Reports, I like to share the top couple tips, reviews and consumer alerts from each month's edition. If you want the full monte, subscribe to Consumer Reports yourself; but for now, here's are my favorite highlights from the December Edition:
Best AA Batteries (We spend way too much on these each year with 3 young kids!)
And More - This month's edition included cameras, printers, ranges, coffee makers and more.
Consumer Warnings - Consumer Reports found BPA in several name-brand soups, juices, tuna and more. Incredibly, it was even found in foods labeled BPA-free and organic brands. So much for paying an arm and a leg for organic, right? BPA has been restricted in Canada and some US states due to concerns which some studies have linked to birth defects, diabetes and more. The FDA has not yet deemed just what a safe level is - they're working on it.
Best Ways to Avoid?
Buy fresh, of course!
Consider alternatives to canned food and beverages
In its unabated effort to piss away as much money as possible on pet projects and freebies to pander to as many future voters as possible, the administration spent a whopping $24,000 per incremental vehicle sold under the cash for clunkers program, according to Edmunds.com, an independent data source with no hidden agenda for forging such a conclusion.
At that price, it probably made just as much sense to simply buy the 125,000 incremental sold vehicles and just give them away to some lucky voters. This "spreading of the money" that so enamors our president is really sickening and evidently, there's no end in sight. With a weak US Dollar crisis brewing and a record deficit with no chance of recovery for decades to come, the government is also on the verge of extending the home-buyer tax credit...but to even more people! They are considering extending it even to existing homebuyers. What next?
Add on the money thrown down the drain at the US automakers when bankruptcy was inevitable (wait, remember when the politicians claimed a bankruptcy would ripple through the entire country and crash the economy? Well, after big auto bankruptcies that were inevitable, no such catastrophe occurred - but union votes remained intact), extending the cash for clunkers program when money initially ran out (because it was such a sucker's move on the backs of the taxpayers), kicking off a poorly conceived cash for appliances program, reworking mortgages for people that lied on their applications and had (and still have) no business owning a home, and now extending the homebuyer tax credit program, it begs the question as to why our lawmakers even attach a pricetag to anything anymore. Whatever price tag the "phase 1" has attached to it is moot when pandering politicians continue to extend and memorialize money-sucking schemes later anyway.
The Healthcare Bill will be no different. While they claim it will cost "only" $900 Billion or so now, and have nonsensical clauses, like the ability for states to opt out (if every taxpayer if forced to pay for the public option anyway through their taxes, hell, but then, they might as well get something out of it, so they'll be forced to opt in), the reality is that it will actually cost our country much more in direct and indirect costs and reap untold havoc on America in terms of unintended consequences. Please name the last time our government took on anything of this scale with a favorable outcome.
While the last administration wasn't exactly a beacon of competence and success, the current one is completely rewriting the American way of life and we have nobody to blame but ourselves. We voted them in!
I ask you this - If, rather than our children eventually having to pay this debt...If each American had to pay the debt we're taking on (and the debt on top of debt to even service our debt) today to the tune of tens of thousands of dollars per family, do you think we'd engaging in this profligate spending spree? No, we're doing this because we don't have to pay it off - future generations will. It's sickening and shameful.
Each week, I like to publish the past week's hottest ETFs to share some new trends and niche ETFs out there and give investors some new investing/diversification ideas. Last week, emerging markets and commodities continued to show strength while some of the other usual suspects took a breather and the S&P500 ended with week with a small loss of 1%. I've made sure to include both some leveraged ETFs with their outsized gains (but take note of leveraged ETF risk of value destruction over time due to daily rebalancing) as well as non-leveraged traditional sector ETFs. There are some ETNs in the mix as well, since not every individual commodity is covered by an ETF. ETNs often carry additional counterparty risk, so ensure you've investigated a particular ETN and parent company solvency before considering.
Top Leveraged ETFs/ETNs
BDD - PowerShares DB Base Metals Dble Long ETN - Up 13% - With the US Dollar continuing to weaken against foreign currencies and signs of a global economic recovery, this double long ETN for base metals turned in a strong weak in a roughly flat equities market. BDD is up 46% vs. a 10% return for the S&P500 over the prior 3 month period.
UCO - Ultra DJ-AIG Crude Oil ProShares - Up 9% - Oil moved up again on the week, continuing its ascent. UCO is levered the move of oil and as long as the trend is as strong in the upward direction, the trend is overcoming the long term value degredation that occurs in leveraged ETFs. For instance, in the prior 3 month period, USO is up 12% while UCO is up 21%, pretty close to a 2X increase over the straight oil futures ETF USO (which granted, has its own tracking error due to monthly rolling of futures contracts). UCD - Ultra DJ-AIG Commodity ProShares - Up 7% - This ETF's intent is to return twice the daily performance of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index. Again, same story with global market recovery and currency effects. UCD is up 22% over the prior month, 21% over the prior 3 months, but is up only 15% over the prior 1 year period, less than the 26% return of the S&P500. A major theme in the markets and in the mainstream press lately has been speculation over the demise of the US dollar as other countries seek to replace their reserve currency with gold and a basket of other currencies. You'll probably continue to see strong volatility in commodities ETFs in the near term while this news cycle continues.
Top Non-Leveraged ETFs/ETNs
GRN - iPath Global Carbon ETN - Up 8% - Here's an article from Barron's in March making the case for Carbon trades which hasn't totally panned out from the early recommendation, but of late with the administration's plans, perhaps there's room to run on this one. It's a relatively complex play, so definitely research this one further if considering this alternative play. GRN has performed relatively poorly this year and with the low volume on this one, I'm not sure I'd recommend it even if I did feel strongly who the winners are going to be here.
BHH - B2B Internet HOLDRs - Up 7% - This internetETF is actually up exactly 100.0% YTD vs. a gain of 20% for the S&P500. In prior downturns, we saw tech get hammered, but surprisingly, this time around, tech had no direct role in the market euphoria and these companies seemed to have learned a thing or two about living without excessive costs and holding cash. Tech may very well continue to outperform if we're looking at a slow recovery in financials and housing. What we're seeing here is companies that do have cash to invest are investing in productivity gains via technology rather than capital-intensive purchases and rehiring of employees as the job numbers are showing. As such, BHH may make for a decent pairs trade against real estate or retail sectors which you may feel will not perform strongly during the recovery.
UGA - United States Gasoline - Up 5% - Gasoline prices spiked further with oil hitting 2009 highs again this week. Since this product uses futures contracts and attempts to track the prices, it may not exactly match the changes in price as reported in the market, but it is surely the best proxy for US prices at the pump. Personally, I've used this ETF before to hedge energy prices for our family's finances. I had previously sold puts on the Oct 28 strike contract (which just expired) and I'm rolling a new one which I'll report in my next trading update.
Word is out that Disney has agreed to exchanges to parents for money spent on Baby Einstein videos for up to 4*15.99 = $64. Apparently, they've conceded that the videos have done nothing to foster intelligence in youngsters and in fact, evidence shows that television viewing is actually detrimental in toddlers. It seems as though many parents bought the videos for their children actually thinking they would make them smarter due to the marketing and messaging from Disney on the videos.
My Take:
I'm a bit surprised by the move since all kinds of companies peddle stuff that clearly doesn't work, but apparently, parents were threatening a class action lawsuit, so perhaps this wasn't an entirely altruistic move on the part of Disney. This is probably cheaper than a lawsuit and since it involved exchanges instead of a flat out cash exchange, the cost isn't nearly the $15.99 per video cited.
Will You Do the Exchange?
I don't know about us. We have a few videos. While we never actually thought our children would become geniuses as a result of viewing the videos and we try to limit overall TV exposure to our kids, the reality is that sometimes you just need a damn break. With three kids 5 and under, when all hell's breaking loose and you need to make dinner, make a phone call or whatever, if I'm going to flip on the TV, I'd rather it be a Baby Einstein or Little Einstein video than some commercial-ridden anime series or something. So, ethically, I don't think we were duped and we probably don't "deserve" free stuff in return. On the other hand, a lot of people will see this as something for nothing - another freebie - and I guess depending on where my wife lands on it, maybe she'll feel a book is better than the DVD and make the switch.
To participate, you must have purchased a Baby Einstein DVD between June 5, 2004 and September 4, 2009.
If you are not satisfied with the Baby Einstein DVD you purchased during the period mentioned above, for a limited time beginning on September 4, 2009 and ending on March 4, 2010, you may exchange it for one of the following:
One (1) Baby Einstein Book of your choice
One (1) Baby Einstein music CD of your choice
- Or -
One (1) coupon for 25% off the purchase of one Little Einsteins™ product. Redeemable with promotion code only at DisneyStore.com.
or you may return it, and we will refund the current retail value of the DVD ($15.99).
To request your DVD exchange or refund (limited to four (4) per household), you must follow the steps below for each DVD returned (note: you may return more than one DVD in the same mailing envelope, but you MUST include a completed mail-in certificate or completed 8½x11 sheet of paper for each DVD you are returning) :
1. Package the DVD, in its original DVD case (if available), into a suitable mailing envelope or package. 2. Include the completed (hand-printed) request form below or an 8½x11 sheet of paper with your signature, name, address, telephone number and email address. 3. Indicate the DVD title you are returning and date of purchase. 4. Check the appropriate box on the exchange/refund request form found below or write in on your sheet of paper your choice of : (a) An exchange for one (1) Baby Einstein Book OR one (1) Baby Einstein music CD. Please write in the product name or title in the appropriate space found on the refund request form below OR on your sheet of paper; (b) A coupon for 25% off one (1) Little Einsteins™ product purchased online at DisneyStore.com; or (c) A refund. 5. Submissions must be postmarked by March 4, 2010. 6. Mail to:
The Baby Einstein DVD Guarantee/Upgrade Offer P.O. Box 3200 Neenah, WI 54957-3200
For everyone that loved the original Freakonomics (who wouldn't) that turned human behavior and economics on its head, the original authors Levitt and Dubner are back taking on such controversial topics as why suicide bombers should buy life insurance to patriotic prostitutes. It's the book everyone will be talking about this season so you might as well get yours:SuperFreakonomics CD: Global Cooling, Patriotic Prostitutes, and Why Suicide Bombers Should Buy Life Insurance
For some time now, I'd been employing covered calls as a means to generate income in a down/flat market. More recently, with markets rallying 60% from their lows, the Apple covered calls have come home to roost. For a detailed background and example of how the Apple position was structured, see How Covered Calls Work. While I've captured thousands of dollars in option premiums from my Google Credit Spreads and Apple covered calls over the past 2 years, it's not a free ride. You do of course forgo unlimited upside when a stock runs unabated like Apple has in recent months.
My most recent covered call position for Apple was opened during the crisis when shares were trading at $96 per share and I sold covered calls along the way as shares slowly moved upward. More recently though, shares zoomed right past 160 to over 200 as of today. As such, I had to start thinking about the exit strategy for the covered call which was well into the money.
I had two options:
1) Leave the position alone and let someone execute the option and lose my Apple shares at 160 per share: Since I owned 100 shares, whatever the share price does from here (unless it dropped back below 160 quickly), my net cash position is unchanged; the shares and the option price move virtually 1:1.
or
2) Buy back the call option (granted, at a much higher price than what I got for it initially) and do whatever I want with the underlying shares.
I opted for #2. Why?
I didn't want my 100 shares of Apple called away without any control over the situation. Due to the wash rule I wouldn't be able to buy back shares for over 30 days and I don't want to miss out on continued upside I foresee for the stock. But since I took a hit on buying back the call (a cash hit only, offset by 1:1 paper gains in 100 AAPL shares), I sold off some of my position to take some gains on the shares as well. My portfolio allocation was way out of whack. My initial entry point for Apple was 96. With shares running up 110% since entry, Apple now comprised over 30% of my trading portfolio. That's simply too much in a single stock, even though I like its prospects.
Outcome - I ended up closing the call and selling 50 shares of Apple at $203 for a gain of over 100% on those shares. While I paid $4400 to close the call, I took in $5350 in cash from the Apple shares. I'm still holding the remaining 50 shares.
Note that there was just a wee bit of option premium left on the the open Jan 160. I intentionally waited until after this week's earnings release to allow for the volatility premium to drop out so I wasn't paying for additional premium unnecessarily. As recently as a few weeks back, the option premium was over $400; today it was closer to $100. So, I paid an extra $100 over intrinsic value for the peace of mind in closing the position out with a great overall gain. Obviously, since I sold the option initially for around $1000 my net gain on paper has still been close to $10,000 considering the capital appreciation plus the prior covered calls minus the $4000 to buy back today's call, but the only regret is I could have enjoyed a pure share gain without capping at 160. (205-96)*100 = $10,900.
Summary: I sold options when volatility was high during the crisis and got a nice upfront premium. If Apple shares hovered in the low hundreds or even up to about 160 per share, I would have kept the full premium plus gains on shares. However, since shares zoomed past the strike, I wasn't able to enjoy the gain past 160. Not a bad outcome overall - could have been worse, right? But just keep in mind with covered calls - there's no free ride.
I'm goin' Sarah Palin on you guys - I'm a Flu rogue. I'm going to share with you my quirky keys to success in avoiding the seasonal flu (and the dreaded swine flu) this fall that you don't see reported in the mainstream press. I'm not a doctor or microbiologist, but I am somewhat of a germophobe and I've spent years of my professional and personal life evaluating, studying, and avoiding the transfer of microbes onto my person and from my person to other objects and people. Here's why:
For years, I spent anywhere from 60-90 hours per week garbed in these rather ridiculous looking, but highly effective clean room suits meant to halt the spread of particulates and microbes from myself to a manufacturing environment where I oversaw sterile biotech and pharmaceutical product manufacturing. With the knowledge that a single microbe could infect an entire batch and (likely be caught due to turbidity or microbial testing, but if not...) had the potential to make a patient very ill or worse depending on the offending organism.
So, in a nutshell, I spent years obsessed with backing into doors, opening doors with my elbows, punching keys with my knuckles instead of fingers, walking around with my hands up in the air like a surgeon and more - never touching my hands to my body, etc. at work, which, depending on how you look at it, translated positively into my daily life. As such, I think the training and behavior has actually translated into a lower rate of infection compared to other people I know. I've never missed a day of work due to illness in my life and I only get about 2-3 colds per year whereas the average is about twice that. I've never had the flu, but I did start to get vaccinated over the past few years, which is generally effective against at least a large portion (often not 100%) of the seasonal strains.
Honestly, everyone's got a line. On one end of the spectrum, you can hunker down and become a hermit living out of your basement Y2K crazy-style. Conversely, you can make no efforts whatsoever to employ routine hygienic customs and hang out in Emergency Rooms for fun this fall. There's a middle ground somewhere and I'm going to give you some ideas that you may not be employing now that might make sense this flu season. I try not to look too "nuts" and drive my wife crazy with ridiculous germophobic behavior when people are looking. However, there are some very simple rituals that I employ covertly (and now I'm broadcasting to several people, so the friends and family that read my blog have just confirmed their suspicions that I'm nuts) that help prevent the spread of germs - and they're not the ones you see on CNN.
Now, keep in mind, I'm not a total freak. And we all have our little tactics we employ in life that might seem odd to publicly state them - but you all do them. Well, I'm sharing mine for the greater good here. I hug my kids who are complete germ-factories, I shake hands with people, I go congregate in places with crowds. I don't avoid germs to the point of lunacy, but I do take some precautions that are relatively low key to protect myself and my family. So, don't judge, just keep an open mind and hopefully these ideas will curtail the spread of the flu a by at least a few people this season.
How to Avoid Getting the Flu
-Opening doors -
I am eternally frustrated when I am confronted by a door that requires me to pull on a handle. I know, that sounds weird. But you're basically forced to put your hands on a surface that hundreds/thousands of other hands have touched during high flu season. I like push-doors, handicap push-buttons, motion detector doors, etc. Unfortunately, there's not much you can do about it without looking totally weird. For some not-so-weird approaches to avoiding contracting flu virus material immediately, you can try the following:
1. It's fall. I'm wearing long-sleeved shirts for the most part. When I approach a door handle that I MUST pull on, I subtly pull my hand into my sleeve a little bit and have my sleeve make contact with the handle instead of my hand.
2. Timing is everything. Often times, someone is either approaching the door from the other direction or you're walking toward the door at the same pace or slower than someone else. Let them get the door, right? Why race to the door. If they're in such a rush, they can open the door and hold it for you.
3. If you absolutely MUST open the door with your own hand, I actually use just 1 finger to grasp the handle and pull pretty hard. Depending on the resistance of the door, I sometimes just use my ring finger and pinky. Why? I rarely touch either of these fingers to my face whereas I use my pointer and middle to scratch, rub and eye, etc. It's all about odds. (And yes, I guess being odd if people see notice this subtle tactic).
4. When leaving a public restroom, after washing my hands, I take the paper towel I dried my hands with and open the door with that paper towel. There's often a trash can at or within throwing distance of the door.
OK, enough on doors, now for some more quirky germ-avoidance tactics.
-Long Sleeves -
5. Can also be utilized to flush toilets, turn off the water when washing hands, etc.
-Public Germ Factories -
6. I've read studies before demonstrating that public phones (conference room phones for cube dwellers since pay phones aren't relevant any more) are actually more bacteria-ridden than toilets and urinals. Everyone's touching that phone and buttons routinely. They never get cleaned whereas bathrooms do. Avoid using a phone other than yours. Avoid using someone else's desk. When you go to a conference room, avoid touching the table top and phone unnecessarily. This might seem a bit unrealistic, but it's all about minimizing risk. If you normally lean all over desktop surfaces, use a shared computer, etc., by making some slight alterations and only doing what you MUST, you decrease your risk of contagion.
-Sneezing-
7. So, don't get me wrong. The right thing to do for the greater good is to cover your sneezes. However, this doesn't actually "prevent YOU from getting the flu". This is one of the bigger factual inaccuracies out there that you see in every brochure and every internet article. Every outlet says that by covering your sneeze (historically, with your hand), you are dodging the flu. Not the case. You're actually potentially spreading it even more by a) sneezing into your hand and then touching something else b) putting your own hand right next to your mucus membranes which are susceptible to disease. What you should do if you've got to sneeze is to actually sneeze into your elbow. I know, we weren't taught to do this as kids, but this is actually the "scientifically-correct" way to sneeze.
-Knuckles, Not Fingers -
8. I'm often forced to touch a public surface that hundreds of people have recently touched. When forced to use a touch-screen at say, the picture developer, Wawa when ordering a sub, or self-checkout at the grocery store, I use my knuckles to make selections rather than my fingertips. You're more likely to transfer flu virus around with your fingers, which are required for virtually all motor activities, versus your knuckles.
-Paying for goods and services -
9. As a habit, when I'm ordering a coffee, food, whatever, I usually have to go up to a counter and pay. I find myself habitually leaning on the counter or touching it with my hands. It's kind of the thing to do when waiting I've found. This is totally unnecessary and since everyone else does it, it's a high risk area. Just stand there and keep your hands to yourself this season.
10. I tend to use a credit card for virtually all commerce anyway since we pay our bill every month and enjoy cash-back rewards. However, cards beat cash and change for other reasons too. Cash and coins have been shown to harbor all kinds or microorganisms (and cocaine actually!). If you're getting cash back from a transaction, it's likely been touched by several people in just the last several hours, whereas, at least with a card, it's only 1 other person - the store employee. Lower risk.
-Avoid Touching Nose, Mouth and Eyes (FOCUS!) -
11. As difficult as it is, making a constant effort to avoid touching these areas will definitely decrease your risk of flu and the common cold. There is some evidence that the H1N1 strain isn't completely susceptible to handwashing since it's spread through aerosolized droplets, but shutting out one pathway via touch is surely going to help. If you have a massive itch that's just killing you and you haven't washed your hands recently, perhaps you can use a knuckle that you didn't use previously, or a pinky which is less likely to be a hot spot (if you're following the rules above!). Again, all about risk management.
-Hand sanitizers often aren't effective -
12. Many people think they can kill/remove virus particles by simply using the nifty hand sanitizer. Well, usually, they're effective only against bacteria and have no claims for viruses. Normal handwashing is generally much more effective since you're completely removing materials and viruses from your skin rather than trying to neutralize it. If given the choice between a hand wash and a gel, I always opt for the old-fashioned way. Plus I don't support the use of triclosan in hand soaps anyway. It's terrible for the environment and has limited benefits - it's totally a gimmick that the American public has fallen for once again - you can barely even find hand soaps without it these days. And many other chemicals in hand sanitizer gels do not have a claim for virus deactivation.
The Obvious
I'm not giving these a number since they're well known and not quirky - but worth repeating:
Wash hands - Probably the single most effective means of prevention aside from vaccination. Better than gels, masks or anything else out there if you live amongst other humans.
Vaccination - The vaccine is the most obvious and effective means of prevention. However, many people either can't get their hands on one or are concerned over potential safety concerns. Nothing I say here is going to change your mind on vaccination, so I won't spend time on it, other than to say that at least for this year, both the seasonal and the H1N1 appear to have decent efficacy against the current strains and no known safety issues. If you're anti-vaccination, #1-12 are especially important to check out.
Eat right, Sleep and Exercise - While it's difficult to definitively quantify exactly what this means given millions of variables and draw a line in the sand, you probably know whether your habits are "good" or "bad". If you sleep 5 hours a night, eat junk food and sit at a desk all day, all other things being equal from a genetic and exposure standpoint, you're more likely to get sick than someone who sleeps 7 hours a day, gets some fresh fruit and vegetables each day and exercises a few times a week. It's simply the way your body was meant to be treated and is more prone to fight off foreign invaders.
So, there you have it. Now you know me. I'm a bit of a germ freak, and now you can be too!
What are your Quirky Tips that you aren't embarrassed to share?
Reprint from my other blog Darwin's Finance in case you didn't catch it:
Another week of great reads. These are entries from blogs I frequent, and I hope you will too (just come back!). I’ve also included various finance/investing carnivals that published my material this week and my favorite posts from my two blogs. This week’s edition coincides with a rather bizarre tale of a publicity-seeking family that claims to have been fooled by their child – the Balloon Boy. As the nation watched and Twitter was ablaze, pundits were initially mocked for questioning whether this might be a publicity stunt, when in retrospect, perhaps they were right. Balloon Boy was not in the balloon, but in the attic. After hundreds of thousands of dollars were spent and hundreds of man-hours in emergency services and equipment were diverted away from true potential emergencies, it was all for naught. I dedicate this edition to the folly because it was really a sign of the times to see a story sweep the cable news cycle and captivate Twitter followers whereas if this happened 20 years ago, it would be a back page story in the “Oddball News Column”. This story grabbed more attention than the ever-increasing violence in Pakistan, Iran’s nuke program potentially provoking Israel to attack, or the notion that we may be seeing the sun set on the US Dollar as the World Reserve Currency unfold before our eyes.
Political Calculations:Implicit Taxation By Design (Please, Please, Please read this article on the current Health Care Bill and how it will really tax the middle-class)
Investing
Oblivious Investor:Best Low-Cost Index Funds (stop paying for actively managed under-performance, please!)
Each week, I like to publish the past week's hottest ETFs to share some new trends and niche ETFs out there and give investors some new investing/diversification ideas. Last week, emerging markets and commodities had quite a showing. I've made sure to include both some leveraged ETFs with their outsized gains as well as non-leveraged traditional sector ETFs. There are some ETNs in the mix as well, since not every individual commodity is covered by an ETF. ETNs often carry additional counterparty risk, so ensure you've investigated a particular ETN and parent company solvency before considering.
Top Leveraged ETFs
UCO - Ultra DJ-AIG Crude Oil ProShares - Up 18% - Oil reached new 2009 highs last week on the usual mix of news items on supply, demand and international happenings. The weak dollar trend is a large part of the moves as well. Since this is a leveraged ETF, near term moves up are magnified substantially over a 1 week period. However, given the longer term loss in value in leveraged ETFs I always start this section off by highlighting what can happen to these over time - see "How to Lose 90% in an ETF Fast". ERX - Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X Shares - Up 15% - This ETF seeks to return 300% of the daily performance of the Russell 1000 Energy Index. With oil prices hitting year highs this week, the underlying energy companies really took off this week again. If the upcoming hurricane season is not as benign as anticipated or if the global economy continues to pick up steam, an onward march for oil is certainly feasible. UWC - Ultra Russell3000 ProShares - Up 13% - While this one showed up on the hot list, it's a bit of an anomaly so I thought it was worth highlighting here. The Russell 3000 1x ETFIWV was only up marginally at 1.4% on the week. UWC has virtually no trading volume and there's a huge bid/ask spread on it. On many days, there are no shares exchanged. I'd recommend avoiding this one (in addition to the risks of leveraged ETFs) unless it starts picking up some volume and matching expected returns.
DAG - PowerShares DB Agriculture Dble Long ETN - Up 10% - Agricultural products are hot with the resurgence of the global economy and a weakening dollar. This ETN was up 10% on the week, but a safer play to remove the long term leverage degradation may be some straight commodities ETFs or if you're looking to hedge a particular commodity, there are many niche commodity ETNs that don't cover a full basket (see below).
Top Non-Leveraged ETFs
SGG - iPath DJ AIG Sugar TR Sub-IdxETN - Up 12% - Trading in a sugar ETN (exchange traded note which has some different properties than ETFs that you'd want to research further) is probably best suited to those with industry knowledge, but there is such a niche ETN available to retail investors nonetheless. Sugar moves at the whims of India's production output, the indirect relationship with Brazil's sugarcane and weather all over the globe. Year to date, SGG has returned 60% vs. a 20% for the S&P500. For broader commodity representation, consider the the Greenhaven Continuous Commodity index ETFGCC, which holds sugar along with several other commodities. Note however, that SGG has routinely outperformed in recent history. UGA - United States Gasoline ETF - Up 11% - Gasoline prices spiked with oil hitting 2009 highs this week. Since this product uses futures contracts and attempts to track the prices, it may not exactly match the changes in price as reported in the market, but it is surely the best proxy for US prices at the pump. Personally, I've used this ETF before to hedge energy prices for our family's finances. I had previously sold puts on the Oct 28 strike contract (which just expired) and I'm rolling a new one which I'll report in my next trading update. USO - United States Oil Fund LP - Up 10% - This ETFusesfutures prices for oil to try and replicate the increase or decrease of oil. Unfortunately, USO and USL tend to be the most popular proxy instruments for oil investing for retail investors but because of the futures roll timing and mechanism, in a rising market such as this one, they don't actually keep up with the increase in the price of oil.
PGM - iPath DJ AIG Platinum TR Sub-IdxETN - Up 8% -This Platinum ETN continues to run. As I highlighted in my gold hype rant, if you're buying gold as a weak dollar ETF, you should really be thinking about silver, platinum or just buying currency ETFs to get a more levered (metals) or direct (currencies) move out of the continued weakness in the dollar, as opposed to holding the useless metal that's really just appreciating due to the weakening dollar. And make sure you fully understand the gold dollar correlation and why you're buying gold if you have your heart set on it. PGM is up 50% YTD vs. 19% for GLD, the predominant gold ETF.
Disclosure: The author sells puts on UGA to hedge energy prices and is holding a USO call contract with January expiry.
It's that time of year where we take a look at next year's benefits expenses and I was shocked and awed by the annual increase of over 30% year over year. I understand that health care inflation costs are running at anywhere from 6-10% annually (which nobody can seem to explain why), but 30% for the same coverage??? While it's not going to destroy us financially, it still comes out to a pretty large sum over the course of a year and I have to imagine such an increase could have a massive impact on many families walking a fine line between being in the black versus being in the red each year. We'll adjust this year, but on a compound basis, 30% starts to become completely unsustainable, even for a family with some slack in the budget.
We used to do the 90/10-type plans early on because we used to hear about HMOs having poor service/selection, but after my wife ended up in the hospital for 2 weeks with our last child and we were handed a bill for several thousand dollars (just 10% is still a lot when the bill's 50K), we opted to switch to an HMO for the last baby so we wouldn't be hit with multi-thousand dollar hospital bills again should another prolonged hospital stay be required.
Well, now, the HMO is the most expensive plan in the mix and with a cost increase of over 30%, it really begs the question as to how this can possibly be justified?
Is this just the insurance industry gearing up to react to the administration's proposed health care reforms?
I get it, they're going to get screwed next year when this health reform bill passes, so they're screwing us this year in anticipation of their misfortune. I'm not going to go off on a rant about the health insurance sector, there's plenty of that to go around already - but I'm just highlighting how drastic the increases are this year and what it will likely mean for disposable income and the onus for health care reform when people become more and more irate over the premium increases - whether or not the reform bill would even have the desired effect.
We recently purchased a new camera and I was ecstatic over the deal I was able to get on Amazon. We have young children now and there's no more important time to have a quality camera to capture our favorite moments. A few years ago, I had purchased a run of the mill point and click. During its tenure, we weren't exactly lit up over the picture quality, even though it was at the higher end of the class. Additionally, at some point, somehow, a hair got into the lens area. Some pictures would come out fine, while others had this annoying hair in the shot. We probably could have had it removed for a nominal fee at a camera shop, but with the combination of that and the desire to be able to have a more versatile, high quality camera, I embarked on a quest to land a digital SLR at a decent price.
I started with Consumer's Reports, which I subscribe to and review my favorite monthly tips and reviews (here's the October edition "best of"). The camera we chose was rated as a Best Buy for combination of great cost matched with high quality. I was able to get top rated Canon (which comes with a lens!) for just over $600.
My wife's obsessed with it now; we were fighting over it this weekend with pumpkin picking and the park. The pictures really come out much better and it's got a ton of functions I still haven't even figured out yet.
Anyway, I just checked Amazon and it's still going for $599, which is a steal. A local camera shop I called wanted $749 for an exact match and nothing on the web beat Amazon. Anyway, if you're in the market for a new SLR (great Christmas gift), perhaps this model's for you.
Each week, I like to publish the past week's hottest ETFs to share some new trends and niche ETFs out there and give investors some new investing/diversification ideas. Last week, emerging markets, commodities and financials had quite a showing. I've made sure to include both some leveraged ETFs with their outsized gains as well as non-leveraged traditional sector ETFs.
ERX - Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X Shares - Up 24% - This ETF seeks to return 300% of the daily performance of the Russell 1000 Energy Index. With oil prices drifting back up again this week, the underlying energy companies really took off in comparison to a nominal gain in oil for the week. Investors are possibly betting that ERX could serve as a strong leveraged hedge for another runup in oil prices. If the upcoming hurricane season is not as benign as anticipated or if the global economy continues to pick up steam, an onward march for oil is certainly feasible. However, given the longer term loss in value in leveraged ETFs I always start this section off by highlighting what can happen to these over time - see "How to Lose 90% in an ETF Fast". AGQ - Ultra Silver ProShares - Up 20% - This is a 2X leveraged ETF tracking the return of silver. This one's been a regular on the hot list several times recently, as silver is more volatile than gold, hence, the runups have been even more spectacular. You'll want to check out how silver and other precious metal ETFs are doing in comparison to gold - much better! It's primarily a weak dollar/global recovery play, but gold tends to get all the press. If you're only investing in the gold weak dollar play, silver and other ETFs may actually do much better for you.
FAS - Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares - 20% - You can always count on having either FAS (triple long) or FAZ (triple short) Financials on the list given the volatility in the Financial sector and the constant news cycle regarding either more government oversight, more leadership turnover, or better than expected year over year comparables given the horrendous base from last year. Note that this week, several Financials will be reporting earnings, so expect massive volatility in FAS/FAZ this week.
Top Non-Leveraged ETFs
RSX - Market Vectors Russia ETF - Up 13% - Russia been on a tear, up 13% last week and now stands at 131% YTD. Viewed as on the verge of default in early 2009, with oil stabilized around $70 per barrel along with the global economy recovering, markets have viewed Russia's near-collapse in equities as overdone and investors have been buying back in in force. The ruble has recovered against the US dollar indicating the worst may be over from a devaluation standpoint. The peak trading value for RSX was close to 60 in 2008 so a double from here is at least plausible if the global economy gets back on its feet. GDX - Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF - Up 13% - This ETF was an interesting study in divergence from the underlying commodity. Over long periods of time, GDX roughly tracks the returns of gold, with the ETF GLD as a proxy. However, last week, GDX returned 13% vs. a return of 4.5% for GLD. In fact, YTD 2009, GDX has actually outperformed GLD by a margin of 42% vs. 19%.
SEA - Claymore/Delta Global Shipping - Up 12% - With a steady runup last week totalling 12%, this shipping ETF is now up 42% over the prior 6 month period as the cost of shipping materials globally starts to pick up as the credit freeze thaws and global conditions improve. Shippers are notorious for throwing off high yields given the nature of their business. As such, the yield on SEA currently stands at 4%.
Other trends that are heating up include foreign currency ETFs given the weakness in the US Dollar, as well as seeing Shorting Treasuries coming back into style. While they didn't make the list that week, these ETFs are moving upward as well, are not strongly correlated with stocks (slightly negative in some cases) and may do well in a flat or falling equities market.
How could you possibly lose 90% in an ETF in less than a year? ETFs are "passive" and "diversified", right? So, how could a portfolio comprised of several securities and without the tinkering of an active manager lose almost all of its value in short order? It's actually easier than you think.
This is Your Investment: (XLF Financials vs. SP - both up 15-20% YTD)
This is Your Investment on Leverage: (FAZ 3X Daily Short Financials -90% YTD)
(yes, I'm dating myself from those "brain on drugs" commercials). But the message is similarly ominous.
As I outlined visually in much more detail on this triple ETF risk article, even when an underlying index is going your way or flat, due to daily rebalancing, you can actually lose money on both the long and the short leveraged ETF - to the tune of more than half your money in both the long or short side. And, if the trend isn't going your way? Forget it - you're out MORE than 3x. Note here how XLF, the underlying Financial sector ETF was only up 20% on the year, yet FAZ, the 3X short Financial ETF was down 90%? 20% * -3 = -60%. That's what new investors assume when they come upon these leveraged ETFs (full leveraged ETF Ticker list). Even upon reading the prospectus, what does "daily rebalancing" really mean to a neophyte? Hopefully, articles like this will help shed some light on the dangers of holding these ticking timebombs more than a couple days.
Now, granted, the Financials have been extremely volatile and if you think there's a range bound ETF to trade, like perhaps shorting treasuries or playing the weak dollar with currency ETFs, there are leveraged instruments to jump on a trend, but I just don't think most retail investors are going to hit the sweetspot on entry/exit.
I have an iPhone and it has changed my life - in some small but helpful ways. It's not replacing my family, my dog or bringing me the joys that real-life interactions do, but I'm much more efficient and connected, especially as a blogger now. It's introduced me to new music, new ways of staying organized and has saved me money - all with Free or Cheap Apps. However, some Apps aren't worth your money in my opinion.
Apps that aren't worth your money
Gas Buddy - No Friend of Mine
One of the first paid Apps I tried was gas buddy and I figured it would pay for itself quickly. However, the App is only as good as the data people are submitting to the site. What I've found is that in many towns, the data isn't current. Since gas stations change their pricing almost daily, if you want relevant data, you need to set your setting to reveal only updates in the past day or two. With that being the case, I might have only 2 out of 10 gas stations that I know are in the area even show up with a price. Therefore, I pretty much have to drive around looking or just settle on a higher priced gas station since many stations aren't updated daily. Personally, I don't understand why gas station owners/managers don't just go online and put in their prices daily. The worst thing that can happen is someone sees that the competition is cheaper - but at least their bubble shows up on a map daily and would likely result in a few extra visits, especially if competitive.
Productivity...or Lack Thereof
Regarding the tons of productivity apps, there are myriad apps that do virtually the same thing - from keeping task lists to setting reminders, and many of them are paid. What I've found though, is that the free Google Calendar does virtually everything and it's free. I'm actually setting up a joint one for my wife and I too since I can't keep up with all the plans she makes and I have night time calls for work now and then which means she has to be around for baths/bed if the calls are at a bad time. It's much more effective than me emailing her each day and saying "can you put this on the cal? what are we doing 3 weekends from now?"
Apps that Changed my Life
Pandora - Now That's a Box I'm Glad I Opened
Pandora has introduced me to tons of new music by learning my likes and dislikes and creating channels for different musicians or types of music. If there's a song I love, I can easily bookmark it (to purchase later when I get an iTunes gift card for a birthday or Christmas; I have trouble shelling out tons of money for music or impulsively buying songs on the spot), or I can just create a channel for that artist and Pandora will play songs from that artist and similar artists. You can listen online with a PC as well, but with the iPhone, I can take it on the go or listen in the car. I don't have to waste my time uploading songs, syncing with my playlist on my PC, etc. Who needs Sirius/XM anymore for music? (I do need it for CNBC and Bloomberg admittedly, but many only have satellite radio for the music).
Google Maps
Google Maps as a GPS: It's actually better than a $250 real GPS, there are none of those annoying paid annual updates needed, I can find stuff so much more accurately and quickly, see real-time traffic for free, etc. Basically, when you check out Google maps on your PC before you leave for a trip, now you can bring it with you. The App shows a real-time beacon driving along the road as you go.
Weather Channel App
My iPhone is actually faster than my computer (Microsoft stinks). My wife is an incessant weather-checker and it drives me nuts. When she asks me about the weather tomorrow or for the weekend, I just hit a button on my iPhone and it brings up weather in an hourly, 10 day, 36 hour format in various locales I've programmed in. Much quicker than opening a new tab and sifting through the screens on weather.com to get what I want.
Real Time Quotes
This App's great for a quick snapshot of your portfolio in real-time. I used to rely on Yahoo!Finance, but those quotes are delayed by 15 minutes. You can change the view to read by $ change, % change, etc. and set up multiple watchlists. And it's Free!
Facebook
To be honest, I didn't get the Facebook/Myspace (now dying) thing for years. I didn't really give a damn what some guy I never talked to in highschool is doing with his life. But with the iPhone App, it is shamelessly easy to snap a shot of my kid at a cool family outing, post up a funny line and add it to my page. It takes seconds. I pretty much just network with family and some family friends, but we enjoy sharing funny stuff about our kids, commenting on each others' ridiculous situations and occasionally, I use it for planning stuff with the old college buds. It's so much easier than keeping track of each others' emails and phone numbers. But that's Facebook - we all know that. The App itself makes uploading pics super-easy which is the big draw for me. Going home and shifting pics from a camera, then uploading to a Facebook page? It never happens.
Lockbox
This one allows you to keep all kinds of stuff like bank accounts, credit card numbers, etc. in a password protected App. It saves me a ton of trouble in digging up old bank statements to deposit money in my kids' accounts or order something online when I don't have my wallet with me.
There are thousands of Apps, many of them Free. These are just a few off the top that have made my life easier - and better - via less hassle and more efficiency.
Disclosure: I love Apple so much, I've been a shareholder and have been writing covered calls against my holdings for income.
What are some of your Favorite Apps? And Useless Paid Apps you regret?
Global equities continue to rally which is great for my retirement portfolio, while I did start to hedge my trading portfolio given the "too far too fast" thinking on my part.
Things are going well at work which I'm very thankful for given the economy (see which employers are hiring and classified as a best place to work for new employees)
The blogs are both performing great! Total revenues for Darwin's Finance and Everyday Finance broke another all-time record. While Darwin's didn't break a new traffic record this month, on a normalized basis, I would consider it a new one - I took a week off for vacation in early September and still hit the same monthly traffic with only 3/4 the normal posting schedule.
Here are the most popular posts of the month by traffic, comments and my own biased opinion! Since they're split between both blogs and you may only follow one, make sure to check some of these out, you may enjoy!
Each week, I normally publish the past week's hottest ETFs to share some new trends and niche ETFs out there and give investors some new investing/diversification ideas. However, I wanted to provide a monthly update instead to demonstrate that over a monthly period, many non-leveraged ETFs make the list as top performers whereas on a weekly basis it's often the daily rebalancing leveraged ETFs. This is due to the value destruction that occurs over time due to daily rebalancing as further outlined in this 3X ETF risk article. So, for a more "long term" view, if you consider monthly long term, as opposed to weekly snapshots, here are some hot trends from the month of September from ETFs not employing daily leveraged returns. As a point of reference, the S&P500 was up 3.5% for the month of September.
RSX - Market Vectors Russia - Up 18% - Russia been on a tear, up 18% in September and close to 100% YTD. Viewed as on the verge of default in early 2009, with oil stabilized around $70 per barrel along with the global economy recovering, markets have viewed Russia's near-collapse in equities as overdone and investors have been buying back in in force. The ruble has recovered against the US dollar indicating the worst may be over from a devaluation standpoint. The peak trading value for RSX was close to 60 in 2008 so a double from here is at least plausible if the global economy gets back on its feet. GXG - Global X InterBolsaFTSE Colombia20 - Up 16% - This ETF holds the most representative Colombia holdings and is deemed by some as a "frontier market" which carries even more volatility (and promise) than the proverbial BRIC/Emerging Markets. As outlined in more detail this initial Colombia ETF launch article, the holdings are pretty concentrated energy and financials. GXG is up over 100% since launch in February vs. 22% for the S&P500.
EWZ - iShares MSCI Brazil Index- Up 16% - Brazil has staged a nice recovery out of the March lows and continued its ascent in April, up 16%. Following a stellar month, it didn't hurt to garner the 2016 Olympics award either.EWZ is up 92% on the year vs. 14% for the S&P500. While EWZ saw a slight bump on the news of the Olympics draw last week, I don't envision bringing the Olympcis to Brazil in 2016 is going to make or break ETF returns in the coming weeks. First, the news has already been digested. Next, it's likely background noise compared to the rapid ascent and volatility already tied to Brazil. If you want to buy EWZ, but it for the resurgence of the global economy, continued export of Brazil's resources, a favorable growth environment, etc., and not for the Olympics.
FAA - Claymore/NYSE Arca Airline - Up 15% - Airlines have really recovered strongly in the past few months, up 43% in the prior 3 month period vs. 14% for the S&P500. With the view of the global economy improving, cost cutting, new fees and services and a reversion back to the mean from an overreaction on the downside, airlines have rallied seemingly as a relief that they're still surviving as opposed to a miraculous change in fundamentals within the industry. GAZ - BarclaysiPath Natural Gas - Up 14% - Natural gas has been on a tear in recent weeks after being severely depressed for some time given that its demand profile is divergent from that of oil and demand in the US has been very light given the recession. GAZ has actually lost half its value YTD. However, there appears to be a break in the trend for a few weeks now with GAZ continuing to move upward strongly.
When the news initially broke about swine flu cases in Mexico, panic ensued. The media speculated that we might be looking at the next Spanish flu from the early 1900s where tens of millions died worldwide - more than World War II. People bled from their orifices and flooded morgues. The media was in full sensationalistic mode and ratings soared. So did something else. Opportunistic investors hopped on the internet and started searching out "swine flu stocks" in the hopes of identifying any company with the word vaccine or flu in its pipeline. They were rewarded handsomely with triple digit returns within weeks.
After a few months of speculation and media hype, it started to become evident that:
a) The current strain had relatively mild symptoms and mortality outcomes b) The usual suspects weren't very susceptible to it - seniors - because they had prior exposure to H1N1 strains earlier in their lives; that was going to substantially reduce the mortality rate c) Tamiflu and other experimental treatments seemed to meaningfully suppress disease in patients that were treated early d) Probably only a handful of the usual large manufacturers would capture the vast majority of US supply and international tenders - the 80/20 rule. e) The newer cutting edge technologies like VLP from Novavax (vaccine like particles) would probably not be necessary and the large manufacturers could meet US demand.
Occasionally, as news broke about the WHO preparing to announce a pandemic (which anyone following the situation knew had already been the case for weeks) and other sensational news items, the whole basket of smaller biotechs working on potential remedies would spike.
Well, it appears as though the party's over, or at least the DJ has left the building. Many of the then-darlings in the space have lost double digits over the prior month while global equities have continued their rally. I thought it would be instructive to take a look at some of the prominent names in the space and compare their initialrunups to recent losses. The intent of this exercise is to caution investors considering jumping into swine flu stocks at this juncture on news that has already been widely digested/discounted by an efficient market.
Summary:
Top Chart: Investors jumping on board during the first few months had great returns, even in comparison to an overall equities runup of 15% on the S&P500.
Bottom Chart: While investors joining the party 3 months ago faired well, during the prior 1 month and 1 week period, the S&P500 trounced the returns of prominent swine flu stocks. The prior 1 month period is especially painful to look at.
Overall Assessment: Unless something changes fundamentally with respect to either supply of vaccine from big pharma or virulence/contagion of the virus, investors may be late to the party at this point.
Disclosure: No active position in any of the aforementioned stocks. The author is invested in an S&P500 ETF.
Through the month of October, Tradeking is running a promotion for a free $50 for new accounts that click through this link:
Not only does Tradeking offer the lowest commissions in the industry, but they're generally viewed as the best all around online broker by the investment community and major reviewers like SmartMoney, etc.
I have an account myself.
Reasons people don't open an account:
They don't get around to it: It only takes 5 minutes or so to complete the application. That's $50 for 5 minutes work! Plus you'll save hundreds of dollars per year if you trade routinely.
Premium services: If you're concerned about leaving say, a high cost broker for Tradeking thinking you won't have access to the same research, same charting tools, etc., just have both accounts open then! You can do most of your trading with Tradeking while retaining your existing account for services and a minor amount of trades per year.
I can't actually think of any good reasons!
Take the 5 minutes and sign up and you won't regret it!
Bloggers - I got a note from Flexoffers today that they finally have a referral bonus for bringing new bloggers into the mix. I've been using them for a while and have found the offerings and actual tracking/conversions to be much better than Commission Junction (which is so-so) and Linkshare (NO GOOD, IMO).
Anyway, I wouldn't pitch something shady to a bunch of fellow bloggers, but I have no reservations throwing this offer out there since it's beneficial to both you and I (fee gets paid to both existing blogger and new referral) and I'm actually using the program with much success for months now.
I've been getting decent conversions from AllyBank, online trading links and a few others services I use myself and promote at Darwin's Finance. They have a lot of companies with them that overlap with cj.com or that cj doesn't even have in their network. Plus, you can do the referral thing yourself once signed up.
If you're interested, just send me your email address to admin@darwinsfinance.com
I then put your email into the system and it tracks from there when you get an autorequest.
*Note that I think you have to have a self-hosted blog, not blogspot.com.
I cut and pasted the details from their referral structure below.
Now, while $2000 sounds like a lot of money, we'll eventually hit the number, right? I'm making around $100 a month there now and I just started in July, so I figure 1.5 years to hit the $2000. I know many of you on here have much larger blogs so perhaps hitting 2K in affiliate fees is much quicker.
Anyway, if interested, shoot me your email; here are details:
"Everyone benefits with FlexOffers.com! You will earn $150 when your first referral generates $2,000 in sales, $175 when your second referral generates $2,000 in sales, $200 when your third referral generates $2,000 in sales, $225 when your fourth referral generates $2,000 in sales, and $250 for each consecutive referral thereafter that generates $2,000 in sales. Each of your referrals will also receive a matching bonus award, ranging from $150 to $250, dependent upon the order in which they were invited to join the program. "
